
Rose City Bluff Restoration adds native plants to small areas of the five-acre Bluff each fall, giving new plants a head start on the following growing season. Currently, forty volunteers are tending hundreds of young plants grown from seeds or bare roots for planting when the rain returns in October. The summers following planting and the south-facing Bluff slope create a challenge for plants trying to establish. Since we do not have a permanent watering system, two of our volunteers, Reed and Neil, have helped get new plants through the last few summers.
Like pretty much everyone we would like to know what the weather prognosticators are predicting. We are currently experiencing an ENSO neutral weather pattern, which stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation neutral. This pattern occurs when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present in the Pacific Ocean, leading to average sea surface temperatures and an absence of the extremes associated with either phenomenon. Does the absence of extreme weather patterns result in rainfall levels close to average, without the spikes or drops that characterize El Niño or La Niña years? Unfortunately, no. During ENSO neutral years, the rainfall in Portland can vary significantly, as there is no strong influence from either El Niño or La Niña.
The water year, from October 1st to September 30th of the following year, is a period used by meteorologists to measure precipitation. This timeframe captures the complete cycle of rainfall. So where are we in the current water year which began on October 1, 2024, and will end on September 30, 2025? This year, Portland has seen a moderate amount of precipitation – 35 inches to date. Over the last few years ENSO neutral years occurred in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. The Portland water years for each ENSO neutral year were: 2012/46.57, 2013/47.99, 2014/34.51, 2017/58.79, 2018/36.33, 2019/35.54, 2020/32.01 (water year/total rainfall). So that is not much help. ENSO neutral years have not been good predictors of water year totals. The best we can say is that during the current ENSO neutral pattern the water year for Portland (35 inches to date, 5/16/25) brings us close to the total water year average of about 36 inches.
Many thanks to Reed and Neil, and sorry we cannot prognosticate any better than this.









